Zambia’s Economic Growth Outlook Strengthens: A Timely Opportunity to Deepen Credit Rating Penetration
Zambia’s economic outlook continues to strengthen, with the Ministry of Finance projecting a GDP growth acceleration to 6.4% in 2026, up from 5.8% in 2025, and further momentum expected in the years ahead. This recovery—anchored in the resurgence of the mining and agriculture sectors—marks a critical turning point for the Southern African nation following last year’s regional drought and years of debt restructuring.
The nation’s macroeconomic plan includes strategic investments in energy diversification—particularly solar power—to reduce dependence on hydropower, which has been vulnerable to climate shocks. Simultaneously, Zambia is scaling up copper production, with forecasts of over 1 million metric tons in 2026 and more than 1.3 million tons by 2028. This expansion is supported by significant private sector investments, including First Quantum Minerals’ $1.25 billion upgrade at Kansanshi and Enterprise, and Barrick’s $2 billion Lumwana expansion.
Credit Ratings: A Pillar for Sustainable Economic Transformation
While growth projections are encouraging, sustaining this trajectory requires more than just sectoral output. It demands financial transparency, investor confidence, and efficient capital mobilization—areas where credit ratings play a transformative role.
As Zambia attracts global and regional investments, independent credit ratings provide a crucial benchmark for assessing the financial strength and governance of institutions across both public and private sectors. By promoting market discipline and risk transparency, ratings enable:
- Lower cost of capital for well-rated institutions
- Increased investor trust in public projects and SOEs
- Enhanced access to regional and international funding
- Better pricing of financial instruments, reducing systemic risk
For banks and financial institutions, credit ratings support better regulatory alignment and capital planning, especially under evolving Basel III requirements. For corporates, ratings enhance their profile for trade finance, capital raising, and procurement qualification—vital in an economy with growing infrastructure and industrial ambitions.
Empowering Local Institutions & Promoting Financial Sovereignty
ICRA Rating, as a locally licensed and regionally recognized credit rating agency, plays a strategic role in Zambia’s evolving financial landscape. Our presence ensures that domestic institutions are assessed within local economic contexts, enabling fairer evaluation and promoting local financial inclusion.
Furthermore, strengthening Zambia’s financial ecosystem through greater use of ratings helps diversify funding sources beyond donor support and external debt. It empowers pension funds, insurance companies, and other asset managers to allocate capital more prudently, guided by independent credit assessments.
Supporting Government Priorities
As the government pursues its medium-term fiscal consolidation and growth agenda, leveraging credit ratings at both sovereign and sub-sovereign levels can improve the transparency and attractiveness of government-related entities. This also aligns with international investor expectations, particularly under Zambia’s renewed engagement with global markets.
Conclusion: Ratings for Resilience and Growth
Zambia is on the cusp of a transformative growth phase. As economic fundamentals improve, integrating robust credit rating practices across the financial ecosystem will enhance trust, unlock funding, and build institutional credibility—foundations that are essential not just for growth, but for resilience and long-term prosperity.
ICRA Rating remains committed to partnering with Zambia’s public and private sectors to build a transparent, investable, and inclusive financial future